England versus New Zealand; the world's second best team against the eighth best; walkover. Those who said the same thing ahead of the series in New Zealand were left feeling sheepish by the fight New Zealand showed. They came oh-so-close to a momentous upset that was utterly inconceivable given the shambles of a side that was destroyed in their previous Test series in South Africa at the turn of the year.
The fact New Zealand recovered from such embarrassment to nearly beat England suggests coach Mike Hesson has been able to quickly restore stability and create an environment where their capable squad have a chance of putting in competitive performances. They come into the first Test at Lord's in healthy shape and if their batsman can find some runs, they have a bowling attack capable of causing England problems.
New Zealand's batsmen will have to fight harder in more bowler-friendly conditions than what they encountered in March. The Dukes ball will swing more and for longer, and England's attack, far better prepared for this series with some county cricket behind them, will be eager to assert the dominance that was expected of them in New Zealand. They can be deadly on home soil, and the Kiwis' batting remains brittle.
For that reason, and given a firm kick up the backside, it is still a value bet that England will win comfortably. Their batting cannot be as lethargic as it was in New Zealand - a series they did not want after the main business was done in India. Most of the order have found form in county cricket and they are comfortable against the swinging ball, shown in the sizable totals England have racked up in Test matches in May in recent years.
The challenge is there for New Zealand to upset the odds again, and if they show as much desire as was on show in March, they will ask England to produce their best cricket to beat them. But England had a sharp reminder of what happens when they are not fully focussed and know they are playing for places in the Ashes. If England do find their best form, they should be too much for plucky New Zealand
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